Baseball is America’s pastime. The length of the season provides plenty of statistical numbers for people to crunch and compare. The sport also offers some of the greatest and most reliable statistical sample sizes when compared to other professional games. This makes the MLB a large target for odds makers and bettors alike. Predicting baseball, when compared to other sports, involves some deeper investigation. The good news is, most of the analytics that go into the strategizing process are readily available for the consumer. Below we’ll detail MLB predictions more thoroughly and discuss the important areas you don’t want to ignore.
The first step to predicting the outcome of MLB games is to dive head first into the different statistical numbers. Some important categories include BvP, OPS, and home vs. away numbers. The BvP stands for batter vs. pitcher statistics. These models can help showcase who hits certain pitchers the best and can be directly associated to a team lighting up a certain pitcher on a given night. These statistics are usually very telling, showing certain zone aspects where batters excel against that given pitcher. The OPS is directly factored into the BvP numbers. OPS stands for on-base percentage and slugging average. A player who is high in OPS against a certain pitcher usually means that a guy has mastered the stuff being thrown his way. Scouring through daily lineups that feature high OPS numbers for positional players will typically be the teams you wish to target. When considering OPS, it is also good practice to check the opposing team’s bullpen rotation. This will give you a feel for how the course of the game will play out. Home vs. away statistics also play a vital role in the team selection process. The home ballpark of a team usually represents the main selling point for team selection. Other factors to consider are pitchers who were traded or signed as free agents in the off-season. If their career held some longevity at a certain ballpark and they are on the road visiting their old stomping grounds, it makes for a sneaky away play advantage. Combining statistics with outside-the-box thinking will produce the best platform for you to bet on.
The MLB Totals Line
The over/under numbers printed by the odds maker represent the total runs a team must score to cash. These situations can work in the bettor’s favor when ballparks are taken into consideration. One of the best examples of targeting, in this sense, occurs at Coors Field. This ballpark is known as a hitter’s park, meaning the batters are at an advantage. The career numbers at this park favor both home runs and total runs scored. If there is ever a situation where the run totals are low from the odds perspective, you should take that bet straight to the bank. The most obvious occurrence of low total projections are when a team’s ace is on the hill. If you take that pitcher’s career numbers at that ballpark into consideration, you will notice some obvious discrepancies. Not even the most polished pitchers host productive numbers at these hitter parks, making them a target for bettors.
Number Cruncher Host Sites
A wealth of knowledge can be dealt to the consumer via free MLB picks sites and other such communities. The odds for MLB games are released early in the morning, with slight changes in weather or lineup scratches being the only forces to change the lines. This early release allows these sites and the consumer to start their data collection. You are able to compile a wealth of knowledge in a short period of time with these support systems. Some offer free services, while others will charge a small fee for monthly memberships. None-the-less, free trails are often offered to get people interested in a certain provider. This is a green light for the consumer because it takes the headache of having to compile comparisons, spread sheets, and other such time measures to predicting that day of games. Utilize this sources to their maximum potential. They will provide you with a wealth of information that would take you hours to locate.